- Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led the Edo governorship race with 43% support, according to the Africa Polling Institute (API) poll
- The survey revealed that 94% of respondents are registered and have collected their permanent voters' cards (PVCs)
- Results were statistically precise within a 95% confidence level, with a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent according to API
In anticipation of the Edo State governorship election set for September 2024, the Africa Polling Institute (API) has published the Edo State 2024 Pre-Election Public Opinion Polling Results.
The results, announced in a statement signed by API's Executive Director, Professor Bell Ihua, revealed that Asue Ighodalo, the governorship candidate from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led with 43 per cent.
Voters confidence
API data revealed that 94% of those surveyed were registered in Edo State and had obtained their permanent voters' cards (PVCs), with 83% having given some thought to the Edo 2024 Governorship Election.
Regarding election integrity, 47% of respondents lack confidence in INEC's ability to ensure a free, fair, and credible election, whereas 34% have some confidence, and 19% express complete confidence in the commission.
In addition, 80% of participants stated that they feel comfortable and secure about casting their votes on Election Day.
Factors that influence voters' decision
When asked about their likelihood to vote in the Edo 2024 Governorship Election, 82% responded positively, 9% said they would not vote, and 8% were uncertain.
The survey further review, “the top five factors that will mainly influence voters’ decision in the election are the Candidate’s competence (57%), the Candidate’s Personality (42%), the Candidate’s Experience and Track Record (36%), the Political Party (34%), and the Party Manifesto / Policy Stance (16%), amongst others.”
Survey methodology
The Executive Director also noted that the opinion poll was conducted from August 12th to 16th, 2024. It included telephone interviews with a randomly selected nationwide sample of 2,687 Nigerians aged 18 and older, covering all 18 Local Government Areas in Edo State.
“The sample consisted of N = 2,687 voters across 18 LGAs – Etsako Central (94), Etsako East (98), Etsako West (157), Owan East (145), Akoko Edo (211), Owan West (83), Esan North East (87), Esan South East (118), Igueben (62), Esan Central (137), Esan West (155), Egor (279), Ikpoba-Okha (306), Oredo (302), Orhionmwon (131), Ovia North East (108), Ovia South West (123), and Uhunmonde (90).
Language and representation
The survey was conducted in five major languages of Edo State, including English, Pidgin English, Benin, Esan, and Etsako. Each Local Government Area was proportionately represented, and the average time for completing an interview was eight minutes.
“Post-stratification gender and senatorial district weights were applied to the data to make it more representative, to allow for more accurate population totals of estimates, and to reduce non-response bias.
Results are statistically precise within a 95% confidence level, API
“The weights assigned were in proportion to the 2006 population figures. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus five per cent. Members of the public are welcome to suggest questions to the monthly poll.”
The Africa Polling Institute (API) operates as an independent, non-profit, and non-partisan organisation dedicated to conducting opinion research, including polls and surveys.
Supreme Court upholds Douye Diri’s election as governor of Bayelsa
Meanwhile, TheRadar earlier reported that the Supreme Court upheld the re-election of Douye Diri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the Governor of Bayelsa State
The court dismissed the appeal brought by the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Timipre Sylvia, and his party.