- Nigeria’s GDP experienced changes with different government administrations since the turn of the Fourth Republic
- These changes were due to certain policies adopted by these governments
- TheRadar highlights the performance of the GDP through different tenures from 1999 to 2024
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently said Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.19 per cent in real terms in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024.
In the GDP report, the NBS said the GDP growth rate is higher than the 2.51 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2023 and the 2.98 per cent recorded in Q1 2024.
It said the Q2 2024 GDP performance was majorly driven by the services sector, which increased by 3.79 per cent and contributed 58.76 per cent to the total GDP. The non-oil sector contributed hugely to the total GDP recorded in the quarter with 94.30 per cent in real terms.
From data gathered from the NBS and media sources, TheRadar highlights the GDP growth rate in the 25 years of unbroken democracy from 1999 to 2024 and under the five democratically elected presidents within the period.
Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007)
The first year of Obasanjo’s government as the first democratically elected president after the military era saw a 0.58 per cent GDP growth, growing to 15.33 per cent in 2002, just a year to the end of his first tenure.
By the end of Obasanjo’s tenure in 2007, the country’s GDP reached an average of 6.59 per cent. This increase is attributable to the reforms witnessed in the country during his tenure, especially in the private sector. They include the liberalisation of the telecommunications sector, the recapitalisation exercise witnessed in the banking sector in 2004 and pension administration.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2008-2010)
Under the administration of the late UmarU Musa Yar’Adua, the GDP marginally declined to 6.76 per cent in 2008, rose to 9.13 per cent in 2010 and an average growth of 7.98 per cent.
Yar’Adua’s time in office saw a boom in commodities sale, weathered the 2008 global crash in the financial market and stood against the sale of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) owing to a lack of transparency.
Goodluck Jonathan (2011-2015)
Following the death of Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan took over power as president in 2010 and later sought and won the election as president in 2011. The GDP in 2011 stood at 5.31 per cent, reaching the highest of 6.22 per cent in 2014 and averaged 4.80 per cent in the four year period of 2011 to 2015.
A number of economic reforms were witnessed under Jonathan, chief of which is the deregulation of petrol, which led to a wave of the #OccupyNigeria protests in 2012. Jonathan also implemented the deregulation of the generation and distribution assets of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), which transformed into generating companies (GenCos) and distribution companies (DisCos).
Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023)
President Muhammadu Buhari came into power, riding on the promise of diversifying the economy from a crude oil-dependent economy to a multi-sector one. Buhari’s first year in office saw the GDP decline to -1.58 per cent, then grew to 2.27 per cent in 2019, declined to 2.25 per cent in Q3 2022 and increased to 3.52 per cent in Q4 2022. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, a few months before President Buhari left office, the GDP grew to 2.31 per cent.
The government introduced a number of social welfare schemes under the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) including N-Power, National Home Grown School Feeding Programme, GEEP, Tradermoni, Farmermoni, Marketmoni, the National Youth Investment Fund (NYIF), among others.
Several economic reforms were witnessed under President Buhari, including the restructuring of the NNPC into a limited liability company following the signing of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in August 2021, the establishment of regulatory agencies for the upstream, midstream and downstream petroleum sectors, among others.
Bola Tinubu (2023- )
The GDP rate grew by 2.51 per cent in Q2 2023, few weeks after President Bola Tinubu took over the reins of power. In Q3 2023, the GDP rate grew by 2.54 per cent. It grew by 3.46 per cent in Q4 2023, lower than the 3.52 per cent recorded in Q4 2022. In Q1 of 2024, the GDP rate further declined by 2.98 per cent but grew by 3.19 per cent in real terms in Q2 of 2024.
President Tinubu’s administration has made tough economic decisions
Since the inauguration of Bola Tinubu as Nigera’s president, the administration has made tough economic policies, the first of which is the announcement on the first day of its inauguration of the removal of fuel subsidy. The subsidy regime, Tinubu said, had cost Nigeria trillions of naira and that petrol smugglers made around N17 million per truck supplied to neighbouring countries while petrol subsidy lasted.
Since the fuel subsidy removal, the price of the product has maintained an upward trajectory from an average of N238.11 in May 2023, to over N1,000 in October 2024. The NNPCL recently announced the latest hike in fuel price, the second time in two months, with prices now approximately N998 in Lagos from N885 and N1,030 in Abuja from N897.
Another tough decision was the floating of the naira in June 2023, allowing for market forces to determine the currency’s value on a willing-buyer-willing-seller model.
The naira has been on a downward trend, depreciating by 40 per cent in the first half (H1) of 2024 and judged the worst-performing currency in H1 2024. The depreciation has continued as the currency lost 43 per cent of its value and is one of the worst-performing currencies on the African continent, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse report by the World Bank.
The currency has seen exponential increases, jumping from the N769.25/$ it traded on June 30, 2023, at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window to N1,660.49/$ as of October 17, 2024. On the other hand, at the parallel market, the currency moved from N770/$ in June 2023 to N1,700$1 as of October 14, 2024.
Experts have however said these twin economic policies have impacted the economy, leading to higher production costs and the pass-through effects are seen in skyrocketing prices of goods and services.
This has also led to a high inflationary trend witnessed in the last 17 months with the inflation rate reaching a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024, decelerating to 33.40 per cent in July after 19 months of an upward trend, marking two consecutive months of decline in August at 32.15 per cent before increasing to 32.70 per cent in September 2024.
Other economic policies under President Tinubu
In just 17 months, the President Tinubu administration has also implemented other policies such as the removal of electricity subsidies, bank recapitalisation exercise after 20 years, Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas (PI-CNG), the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFund), among others.
Nigeria’s external debt rose by N22.77trn within 10 months of Tinubu’s administration
Meanwhile, TheRadar reported that as of March 2024, Nigeria’s external debt stood at N56.02 trillion, a N22.77 trillion increase from the N33.25 trillion it was at the end of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
According to data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), aggregated and posted by StatiSense on X (formerly Twitter) on August 30, the figure was achieved in just 10 months of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
