- The African Export-Import Bank forecasted that Nigeria’s economy would reach 3.6 per cent in 2025
- It said Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms have helped to boost business confidence
- Afreximbank said there are increasing investments in manufacturing and healthcare sectors
A new projection by African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) Trade Intelligence Solutions forecasts that Nigeria’s economy will reach 3.6 per cent in 2025 from 3.0 per cent in 2024.
It said the economic expansion will be driven by increasing fuel production at the Dangote Petroleum and Petrochemicals refinery, declining inflation, and policy reforms aimed at stabilising the financial sector.
The report stated that fuel production at the 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery will reassert Nigeria’s dominance of crude oil export as it may exceed demand, leading to exports to support growth.
It added that this shift is projected to enhance Nigeria’s trade balance and reduce dependency on imported fuel.
“Output at the Dangote Refinery will likely exceed domestic demand, enabling Nigeria to become a net fuel exporter for the first time, supporting export growth,” Afreximbank noted.
The report also forecasted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to reach a 4.0 per cent average between 2025 and 2029, which will be necessitated by stronger exchange rate stability and an improvement in household purchasing power.
Economic reforms to boost business confidence
According to the report, Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms have started yielding results, strengthening investor confidence and improving business confidence.
It cited the bank recapitalisation policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), saying it will enhance financial sector resilience and foster industry consolidation.
It also added that the government’s removal of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange reforms have addressed foreign exchange shortages and created a more transparent economic environment for both local and foreign investors.
“Reform impetus is gaining traction in Nigeria, which will positively impact the economy, support business sentiment and attract increased investment,” the report added.
Increasing investments in manufacturing and healthcare sectors
Afreximbank’s report further stressed that Nigeria’s manufacturing and industrial construction sectors are on track for growth, particularly in Nigeria’s Export Processing Zones (EPZs), which offer incentives such as tax exemptions, duty-free imports, and capital repatriation.
The EPZs, managed by the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), are expected to attract increased investments and boost local production.
It also noted the increased investment in the pharmaceutical sector, driven by the Presidential Initiative to Unlock the Healthcare Value Chain (PVAC).
Also, the $1 billion Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Afreximbank, signed in February 2024, has already facilitated the establishment of over 70 healthcare manufacturing firms in the country.
World Bank projects 3.6% GDP growth in 2025, 2026, inflation decline in Nigeria
Meanwhile, TheRadar earlier reported that the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025 and 2026 due to expected economic stability following ongoing reforms by the Federal Government.
This was contained in the Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 report of the World Bank published on Thursday, January 16.
